NASA Panel Pegs Starship Flights At 22

For years, the exact number of rocket launches required to support a human return to the Moon has remained a closely guarded figure within NASA. That ambiguity has now been replaced by a specific and significant estimate, which could have major implications for the timeline of the Artemis program.

During its quarterly meeting on Thursday, the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel addressed risks associated with landing humans on the Moon. In the course of this discussion, panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, provided a new estimate for the number of SpaceX Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander in low-Earth orbit. According to Precourt, the figure is 22.

This number represents a substantial increase from previous projections and highlights a persistent challenge in the mission architecture. To fly to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit, the lander must be fully fueled in low-Earth orbit. This process involves launching a 'depot' Starship, which serves as an orbital fuel station, followed by a series of 'tanker' Starships to transfer liquid oxygen and methane propellant into the depot.

The requirement for numerous tanker flights has been a recurring issue. In 2023, the then-director of NASA's Human Landing System program, Lisa Watson-Morgan, expressed reluctance to provide a precise figure, stating, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.” She later characterized the number as being in the “high single digits to the low double digits.” Other officials have previously cited figures in the “high teens,” indicating that a high volume of launches was anticipated.

The expectation has always been that SpaceX would enhance the lift capacity of Starship over time, thereby reducing the number of tanker flights needed to fill the depot. The new estimate of 22 launches suggests that such improvements may not be materializing at the rate or timeline required for the rocket to play a meaningful role in NASA's lunar landing efforts this decade.

Concerns are emerging among some NASA officials that the required number of launches might be too high to support the planned Artemis missions within the current decade. The projected figure of 22 flights underscores the logistical complexity and scale of the operation, as each launch must be executed successfully to ensure the lander is properly fueled for its journey.

The implications of this estimate are significant for the Artemis program's schedule. An increase in the number of launches needed to support a single lunar mission could lead to delays, increased costs, and greater operational risks. The feasibility of the mission plan hinges on the ability to conduct these flights efficiently and reliably.

Looking ahead, the focus will be on how NASA and SpaceX respond to this projection. The agency must decide how to proceed with its lunar landing plans given this new data, while SpaceX will need to address the technical challenges associated with increasing Starship's performance to meet the launch requirements. The path forward for returning humans to the Moon depends on resolving this critical issue.